Pulp price changes before the festival

China Paper Association

Top head

On January 19, the broadleaf pulp price showed a jump, and watched it.

In 2019, the third batch of imported waste paper was announced, only 60,000 tons.

Before the holiday, the price increase was frequent, and the off-season shouted and warmed up. After the holiday, it still looked at supply and demand.

Macroscopic aspect

People's Daily: China's economy is going against the trend, the renminbi remains strong and the exchange rate will remain strong.

The 600 billion yuan micro-enterprise inclusive tax cuts will benefit 95% of enterprises

The central bank put a trillion yuan in a week, the market funds are still not loose, the market is too short

Paper palm

As a special paper leader, Guanhao Gaoxin has increased its profit by 115.55% in 2018, reaching about 61 million yuan. The self-adhesive business turned losses and the printing business reduced its losses as its growth highlight.

The new paper for household paper continues to increase. Zhongmao Paper in Zhumadian will have two more production lines of 20,000 tons/year. It is expected to be put into operation in November 2019.

Jiangsu Shengda Group Kaisheng Paper plans to expand 200,000 tons of packaging paper based on the existing 300,000 tons of high-strength corrugated paper production capacity, and has now entered the EIA stage.

The transformation direction of Fuyang Paper Mill is basically clear: Chunsheng Group will move to Cambodia, invest 5 million tons of whiteboard paper, plan to put into production in 2020, Hongyi Group transforms solid-state batteries, charging piles, etc., Xinshengda Group invests 2.1 million tons of packaging paper industry in Malaysia The park is scheduled to go into production in June 2020. It can be foreseen that the Fuyang packaging paper industry group that will be retired will continue to influence the supply and demand relationship in the future with the pattern of overseas production and domestic sales.

In 2019, the China Pulp Summit will be held in Hangzhou on March 18, with pulp supply and futures becoming the theme.

Recently, the largest pulp supplier in Brazil, in an interview with RISI, expressed the following views on pulp prices: 1) Market fundamentals do not support China's current price decline 2) The supply to China will be reduced in the next 2-3 months 3) The pulp market should be subject to supply and demand, not based on speculation and speculation. 4) The current price does not match the fundamentals. 5) Global 42-day inventory represents a balanced supply and demand pattern. 6) Some ports do have high inventory levels. 7) Household paper The new capacity will support the increase in pulp volume. 8) The current port inventory is high but the client inventory is low. 9) The shipment volume will be adjusted in the future. 10) Some downtime maintenance has been planned to reduce the inventory increase this quarter.

Cost face

[wood pulp]

1. The latest reference pulp price: broad leaf pulp 5500 yuan / ton softwood pulp 5600 yuan / ton

2. Fluctuation tips:

Recently, the price of pulp has stabilized at the bottom, and the futures price has also apparently bottomed out. Due to the consideration of the Spring Festival holiday, the paper mills are nearing completion, and the pulp price will have a bottom fluctuation process, and an upward trend is expected after the holiday.

3. External disk observation:

Along with the decline of domestic stock pulp, the rainbow fish needle pulp outside the plate in January was 730 US dollars / ton, down 70 US dollars from the previous round, the star broad leaf pulp 650 US dollars, down 30 US dollars / ton from the previous round.

【crude】

1. Latest price: $53.99 / barrel

2. Fluctuation tips:

From the high of 77 US dollars in early October all the way down to 42 US dollars at the end of December to start a rebound, will be consolidating near 52 US dollars / barrel in the near future, there is a trend of continued climbing.

3. Chart:

[Power Coal]

1. The latest reference price: 577 yuan / ton,

2. Fluctuation Tip: The recent coal price is basically at a stage low, waiting for the performance after the Spring Festival.

3. Chart:

【exchange rate】

1. The latest exchange rate: at a price of 6.78,

2. Fluctuation Tip: The RMB exchange rate has recently rebounded and its performance is relatively strong. 6.78-6.96 is the fluctuation range in the past six months. The overall exchange rate will continue to adjust and fluctuate with the news of Sino-US relations. Given that the US dollar is near the end of the strong, the financial industry predicts that the RMB exchange rate will be centered at 6.72 in the 2019, with fluctuations in the ±6% range. .

3. Chart:

Price post

20190121:1 mid-to-late, the market is still dull, but the price increase letter began to appear frequently, white card, wrapping paper and cultural paper market have a price increase letter, Asia-Pacific Sinbo announced that from February 1 double rubber rose 200 Leading paper mills are rushing to the forefront, other paper mills have yet to be observed, and the price rises in the off-season can judge the industry's expectation of the price rebound after the Spring Festival.

This article is posted on this website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.

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