[ppzhan Abstract] A few days ago, Macquarie Bank issued a report stating that the fundamentals of the global packaging paper market are gradually warming up. It is expected that the global cardboard market price will continue to rise in the second half of the year. Affected by this, overnight US stocks related sectors rose significantly, including KapStone Paper (KS) rose 6.87%, International Paper (IP) rose 4.7%, Rock-Tenn (RKT) shares rose 3.95%. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic paper industry stocks have performed well overall. Some analysts pointed out that this may be mainly due to the market's expectation that the supply and demand relationship in the paper industry may improve.
The rapid release of domestic production capacity and the slowdown in macroeconomic growth in 2010-2011 led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the paper industry. Paper prices have been low since the mid-2011 decline and are now close to historical lows. The supply and demand relationship in 2013 is expected to achieve marginal improvement. Since the beginning of this year, the price of paper has risen month by month, especially the price of cultural paper has shown a slight upward trend. For example, the price increase of coated paper in January-March is about 1.4%, 0.7%, and 1.9%, respectively; The price rose by 1.5% qoq, indicating a slow recovery in downstream demand. And the international pulp price has been rising for 6 months since last October, and the monthly increase is about 1%. In the short term, the price of paper products will continue to rise. As the global wood pulp production capacity is still large in 2013, the price of pulp will be high. The probability of a sharp rise is small and will not put more pressure on the cost side of paper companies.
According to the 2012 China Paper Industry Development and 2013 Trend Research Report, the overall development of China's paper industry was sluggish in 2012. The whole industry is still in a strategic adjustment period in 2013. The paper consumption market capacity has generally maintained growth this year, but the growth rate will be somewhat Slowdown, market competition has further intensified. The industry will start a new round of reshuffle, and the elimination of small enterprises will be accelerated. The merger and reorganization of large enterprises will become an important measure for the optimization and development of the industry.
In addition, since the second half of 2012, the paper industry's inventory growth rate has shown a certain downward trend, indicating that the industry has begun to destock, the industry is expected to resume its upward momentum in 2013, especially in the second half.
Due to the recent rise in paper stocks in the US stock market, the relevant stocks in the A-share market have also reluctantly reversed in the near future. Among them, Sun Paper has a daily limit on the 16th, and Zhongshun Jierou rose 3.13% on the 17th. At present, some of the paper packaging companies in the A-share market, Meiyingsen, Hexing Packaging, and Sun Paper, Zhongshun Jierou and other paper stocks are worthy of attention.
Mei Yingsen (002303): The company is engaged in the production and sales of corrugated packaging products, and the overall service capacity of packaging integration. The company has passed ISO9001, ISO14001 and OHSAS18001 certification, and has the qualification for dangerous goods packaging production. It provides packaging product design, reasonable packaging solution optimization, rapid logistics and distribution, economic third-party procurement, professional supplier inventory management and assistance. Packaging integration services such as packaging operations. The company is one of the few military packaging manufacturers in the packaging industry, and has established good business relations with many well-known domestic and foreign companies. Customers include IBM, Emerson, Samsung, Cisco and leading EMS companies. Foxconn, Jabil, Wistron, Flextronics and so on.
Hexing Packaging (002228): As the main revision unit of the three national standards for corrugated boxes, the company has been paying attention to the technology development and innovation capabilities of the company for many years of operation. Since 2001, it has successively passed the ISO9001 (quality) system certification. , ISO14001 (environment) system certification, OHSAS18001 (health and safety) system certification. At the same time, the company has been focusing on the development of corrugated carton packaging industry for more than 10 years. It has established a packaging demand to meet customers' quality, environmental protection and safety. The brand effect of “Hixing†has become an important advantage in the competition between the company and other enterprises. one.
Sun Paper (002078): The company is a large-scale coating and packaging board production base in China. Its main products include more than 150 varieties of coatings, including coated packaging paperboard, industrial base paper and cultural office paper. The company's current paper production capacity is 1.3 million tons. The annual output of 98,000 tons of laser printing paper project jointly invested with Baian International's total investment of 800 million yuan has been started in March 2006 and completed and put into operation in February 2007. In addition, the company Joint venture with US International for US$480 million to establish a joint venture company in Zhangzhou for the production of coated white cardboard and aseptic liquid packaging paper. This project will fill the gap in the domestic paper industry and end the history of relying on imports of aseptic liquid packaging paper. .
The net profit growth rate of Industrial Securities Forecast Co., Ltd. in 2012-2014 was -67%, 84%, and 43%, respectively, and EPS was 0.17, 0.31, and 0.44 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE of 30 times, 16 times, and 11 times. Industrial Securities believes that the company's performance has gone through a low period, which will usher in improved earnings; capital expenditure will be effectively controlled, and the issuance will also ease financial pressure.
Zhongshun Jierou (002511): The company is an echelon enterprise in the domestic paper industry. The company is mainly engaged in research, development, production and sales of tissue paper. The company has two famous domestic brands of “Jierou†and “Sunâ€. The main products are roll paper, handkerchief paper, soft paper and tissue paper. The company has a multi-brand strategy and a good brand image; good research and development capabilities; a nationwide marketing network and a nationwide production base layout.
Guojin Securities pointed out that with the launch of the company's fundraising projects, and mainly concentrated in the relatively strong South China and Southwest China, the company's high growth this year is still very certain. By covering the blank area and entering the new commercial terminal, the risk of capacity digestion is small. From the whole year, Guojin Securities expects that the company's gross profit margin may slightly decline in 2013, but the company will flexibly adjust the fees according to the change of gross profit margin, so the net interest rate can still maintain the current level.
In addition, in recent years, the demand for consumer household paper has been increasing and the use has become more and more widespread. In terms of investment, it is recommended to pay attention to the well-performing domestic consumer paper listed companies.
The rapid release of domestic production capacity and the slowdown in macroeconomic growth in 2010-2011 led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the paper industry. Paper prices have been low since the mid-2011 decline and are now close to historical lows. The supply and demand relationship in 2013 is expected to achieve marginal improvement. Since the beginning of this year, the price of paper has risen month by month, especially the price of cultural paper has shown a slight upward trend. For example, the price increase of coated paper in January-March is about 1.4%, 0.7%, and 1.9%, respectively; The price rose by 1.5% qoq, indicating a slow recovery in downstream demand. And the international pulp price has been rising for 6 months since last October, and the monthly increase is about 1%. In the short term, the price of paper products will continue to rise. As the global wood pulp production capacity is still large in 2013, the price of pulp will be high. The probability of a sharp rise is small and will not put more pressure on the cost side of paper companies.
According to the 2012 China Paper Industry Development and 2013 Trend Research Report, the overall development of China's paper industry was sluggish in 2012. The whole industry is still in a strategic adjustment period in 2013. The paper consumption market capacity has generally maintained growth this year, but the growth rate will be somewhat Slowdown, market competition has further intensified. The industry will start a new round of reshuffle, and the elimination of small enterprises will be accelerated. The merger and reorganization of large enterprises will become an important measure for the optimization and development of the industry.
In addition, since the second half of 2012, the paper industry's inventory growth rate has shown a certain downward trend, indicating that the industry has begun to destock, the industry is expected to resume its upward momentum in 2013, especially in the second half.
Due to the recent rise in paper stocks in the US stock market, the relevant stocks in the A-share market have also reluctantly reversed in the near future. Among them, Sun Paper has a daily limit on the 16th, and Zhongshun Jierou rose 3.13% on the 17th. At present, some of the paper packaging companies in the A-share market, Meiyingsen, Hexing Packaging, and Sun Paper, Zhongshun Jierou and other paper stocks are worthy of attention.
Mei Yingsen (002303): The company is engaged in the production and sales of corrugated packaging products, and the overall service capacity of packaging integration. The company has passed ISO9001, ISO14001 and OHSAS18001 certification, and has the qualification for dangerous goods packaging production. It provides packaging product design, reasonable packaging solution optimization, rapid logistics and distribution, economic third-party procurement, professional supplier inventory management and assistance. Packaging integration services such as packaging operations. The company is one of the few military packaging manufacturers in the packaging industry, and has established good business relations with many well-known domestic and foreign companies. Customers include IBM, Emerson, Samsung, Cisco and leading EMS companies. Foxconn, Jabil, Wistron, Flextronics and so on.
Hexing Packaging (002228): As the main revision unit of the three national standards for corrugated boxes, the company has been paying attention to the technology development and innovation capabilities of the company for many years of operation. Since 2001, it has successively passed the ISO9001 (quality) system certification. , ISO14001 (environment) system certification, OHSAS18001 (health and safety) system certification. At the same time, the company has been focusing on the development of corrugated carton packaging industry for more than 10 years. It has established a packaging demand to meet customers' quality, environmental protection and safety. The brand effect of “Hixing†has become an important advantage in the competition between the company and other enterprises. one.
Sun Paper (002078): The company is a large-scale coating and packaging board production base in China. Its main products include more than 150 varieties of coatings, including coated packaging paperboard, industrial base paper and cultural office paper. The company's current paper production capacity is 1.3 million tons. The annual output of 98,000 tons of laser printing paper project jointly invested with Baian International's total investment of 800 million yuan has been started in March 2006 and completed and put into operation in February 2007. In addition, the company Joint venture with US International for US$480 million to establish a joint venture company in Zhangzhou for the production of coated white cardboard and aseptic liquid packaging paper. This project will fill the gap in the domestic paper industry and end the history of relying on imports of aseptic liquid packaging paper. .
The net profit growth rate of Industrial Securities Forecast Co., Ltd. in 2012-2014 was -67%, 84%, and 43%, respectively, and EPS was 0.17, 0.31, and 0.44 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE of 30 times, 16 times, and 11 times. Industrial Securities believes that the company's performance has gone through a low period, which will usher in improved earnings; capital expenditure will be effectively controlled, and the issuance will also ease financial pressure.
Zhongshun Jierou (002511): The company is an echelon enterprise in the domestic paper industry. The company is mainly engaged in research, development, production and sales of tissue paper. The company has two famous domestic brands of “Jierou†and “Sunâ€. The main products are roll paper, handkerchief paper, soft paper and tissue paper. The company has a multi-brand strategy and a good brand image; good research and development capabilities; a nationwide marketing network and a nationwide production base layout.
Guojin Securities pointed out that with the launch of the company's fundraising projects, and mainly concentrated in the relatively strong South China and Southwest China, the company's high growth this year is still very certain. By covering the blank area and entering the new commercial terminal, the risk of capacity digestion is small. From the whole year, Guojin Securities expects that the company's gross profit margin may slightly decline in 2013, but the company will flexibly adjust the fees according to the change of gross profit margin, so the net interest rate can still maintain the current level.
In addition, in recent years, the demand for consumer household paper has been increasing and the use has become more and more widespread. In terms of investment, it is recommended to pay attention to the well-performing domestic consumer paper listed companies.
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