In the first quarter of this year, China’s economy started with a “weak recoveryâ€. The decline in CPI growth in April eased some inflationary pressures, but the continuous decline in PPI showed that the weakening of the real economy continued, and the HSBC PMI hit a new low in May, further indicating The Chinese economy is still in a period of shock consolidation. In the face of the dilemma of weak economic recovery, recent public opinion has reappeared whether a new version of the "4 trillion" discussion should be launched. Experts generally believe that relying on the traditional economic stimulus plan can not resolve structural contradictions, but may increase the accumulation of overcapacity and local debt. Therefore, the key to stable growth is to continue to deepen reform and adjust the structure, and promote deep-level institutional reform. In exchange for the dividend of sustainable development.
[Insufficient motivation for economic growth autonomy]
“Manufacturing activity has cooled in May, reflecting the slowdown in domestic demand and the impact of external shocks.†Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC Greater China, said that the April-May PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) averaged 50, low. In the first quarter of 51.5 and the fourth quarter of last year's 50.5, it indicates that the industrial growth rate in the second quarter may slow down again, bringing downside risks to China's fragile economic recovery.
“Because of the structural differentiation of the macro economy, the autonomy of economic growth is seriously insufficient, and the sustainability of China’s growth in the future is still worrying.†Zhang Mannao (microblogging), deputy director of the World Economic Research Office of the National Information Center’s forecasting department, believes that there are currently three The big contradiction still plagues the Chinese economy: First, the contradiction between the accelerated expansion of infrastructure real estate investment led by the government and the decline in manufacturing investment. Private investment has not really taken over the baton from the government. The long-term average profit margin of the manufacturing industry has affected investment confidence; Second, the contradiction between the increase in rigid government expenditure and the sharp decline in local fiscal revenue. Urbanization is the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand. It requires a large amount of infrastructure investment, urban development investment, and people's livelihood investment, while land revenue decline and assets brought about by real estate regulation and control. Shrinking has increased the debt repayment pressure of local governments and financing platform enterprises; the third is the contradiction between stabilizing economic growth and controlling the rise of potential inflationary pressures.
[Stimulus plan is difficult to resolve structural contradictions]
In the face of economic structural contradictions, is it possible to boost the economy through the new "4 trillion" stimulus policy? In this regard, Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, said: "It is difficult to do so." He said that on the one hand, in recent years, currency oversupply is inseparable from its high inflation and high housing prices, which exacerbates structural contradictions; From the perspective of results, it seems that it is difficult to rely on monetary stimulus to stimulate economic growth. It may even increase the risk of shadow banking and local financing platforms.
Shen Jianguang said that since the financial crisis, the state has launched a large number of projects to stimulate economic growth and released a large amount of funds. Although this has played a positive role, some projects have not formed income due to entering the overcapacity industry. This interest rate. Under the low profit margin, some enterprises are faced with the dilemma of borrowing new debts and repaying old debts, and production is difficult to effectively improve. These contradictions show that relying on traditional economic stimulus is difficult to resolve structural contradictions, but may cause problems to accumulate.
Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that although the current real economy is not optimistic, it should not rely on stimulus policies to promote economic development. In the long run, the path of such formation is more dependent on the healthy development of the Chinese economy. And as the GDP plate grows larger, the amount of stimulus needed to invest will be greater and unsustainable.
[Deepening reform is the fundamental way out]
So how can we solve the current economic dilemma? In this regard, Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, said that the fact that investment and consumption have not grown rapidly with the broad money means that the monetary policy will not be as strong as the past. The key to China's economic downturn is to reform and micro-economic entities to find more effective ways to use resources, more efficient production methods, more potential markets and more product-friendly environments for consumers. The government has decided to cancel and decentralize a number of administrative examination and approval items. In the future, allowing microeconomic entities to have greater autonomy to explore, innovate and break through will become the key to China's economic growth.
Li Xuesong also believes that the current focus of China's macroeconomic regulation and control should be placed on steady growth, and the key to stabilizing growth is to continue to increase reforms. The primary problem is the reform of finance, taxation and finance, which further reduces corporate tax burdens and reduces the financing costs of enterprises. This is an important reason for the current difficulties in business operations.
In addition, Shen Jianguang believes that it is necessary to digest and clean up the overcapacity left over from the previous round of economic growth and the local government debt problem, and to exchange for deep dividends in exchange for dividends. Although this process is inevitably experiencing the pain of “breaking the rebirthâ€, it is worthy of recognition that the decision-making level has always remained firm on the issue of reform. Therefore, it is expected that the government will not be able to raise the economic growth target next year, but will instead sacrifice economic growth in exchange for some structural reform breakthroughs.
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